Since March, the impact of the epidemic on the supply and demand of the housing market has shown an immediate rebound based on the current sales situation, the number of new houses, and the future prospects of builders. Combined with the original fundamentals, we believe that the impact of the epidemic is only short-term. To sum up, compared with the "oversupply" of the housing market before the financial tsunami, it is still in a situation of "oversupply" after the epidemic. Falling interest rates are good for the housing market, and rising interest rates are bad for the housing market.
Therefore, observing the Fed's actions, including raising and lowering interest rates, and future interest rate outlooks (called interest rate dot telemarketing list plots) can help to understand whether the positive/negative factors in the housing market continue. Since March, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates continuously due to the pneumonia epidemic, reducing the benchmark interest rate to the level of the financial tsunami (0-0.25%) in one go. According to past experience, especially in the current era of great monetary easing, interest rates are easy to fall and difficult to rise It took more than five years to resume interest rate hikes after continuous interest rate cuts in 2008), and it is difficult to return to the interest rate level before the epidemic in the short term.
According to the interest rate dot plot of the Fed's quarterly interest rate meeting in June, almost all members believe that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged in 2022, which means that the current low-interest environment favorable for the housing market will continue. For the interest rate trend of the Federal Reserve, please refer to the previous article: [FOMC meeting] The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, and the extension of various financing measures has become the biggest bright spot . unnamed Photo Credit: Finance M Squared From the perspective of supply, demand and population, U.S. real estate should have long-term support, but after the epidemic, will people's family wealth be enough to invest in real estate? What is the future trend of real estate.